Guyana’s oil sector is poised for significant growth in 2025, with the government forecasting an average output of 675,000 barrels per day (bpd), a substantial increase from the 616,000 bpd produced in 2024. This projected 9.6% rise in production underscores Guyana’s rapidly expanding role in the global oil market.

Production Growth Drivers

The anticipated increase in oil output is primarily attributed to:

1. Yellowtail Project: ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail development, expected to come online later in 2025, will be a major contributor to the production boost.
2. Existing Field Optimization: Ongoing improvements and ramp-ups at current producing fields are expected to enhance overall output.

Economic Implications

Despite the production increase, Guyana faces some economic headwinds:

• Revenue Forecast: The government projects oil revenues of US$2.5 billion for 2025, slightly down from US$2.57 billion in 2024.
• Price Expectations: Average crude oil prices are forecasted to drop from US$79.40 per barrel in 2024 to US$71.90 per barrel in 2025.
• Export Value: The total export value of crude oil is expected to decrease marginally from US$17.99 billion in 2024 to US$17.61 billion in 2025.

Broader Context

Guyana’s oil sector growth is part of a larger trend in non-OPEC+ production increases:

• The country is expected to contribute significantly to global supply growth, with production forecasted to rise by 0.3 million bpd from 2024 to 2026.
• Guyana, along with the United States, Canada, and Brazil, is driving much of the growth in global petroleum liquids production.

Future Developments

Looking beyond 2025, Guyana’s oil sector is set for further expansion:

• ExxonMobil plans to boost output capacity to 940,000 bpd by the end of 2025.
• The Hammerhead project, with a potential capacity of 190,000 bpd, is targeting a final investment decision in mid-2025.
• The Longtail project, focusing on non-associated gas, is slated for a final investment decision in 2026.

As Guyana continues its trajectory as one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers, the country faces the dual challenge of maximizing production while navigating fluctuating global oil prices. The government’s ability to manage this growth and its associated revenues will be crucial for Guyana’s long-term economic development.